Malaria Consortium- Call For Application For Modelling Expert (International) Consultant

DEADLINE: 20TH JANUARY, 2022 MALARIA CONSORTIUM CALL FOR APPLICATION FOR MODELLING EXPERT (INTERNATIONAL) CONSULTANT

BACKGROUND: The African region carries the highest burden of malaria, with 93% of the reported cases worldwide. Although six countries accounted for more than half of all malaria cases worldwide, Nigeria accounts for the largest proportion of these cases (25%) and 24% of the global deaths due to malaria in 2018.

Estimates of Malaria deaths globally fell from about 400 000 in 2010 to about 260 000 in 2018, the most substantial reduction being in Nigeria, from almost 153 000 deaths in 2010 to about 95 000 in 2018.

Despite the progress made in combatting malaria in Nigeria and in reducing malaria prevalence from 42% in 2010 to 23% in 2018, it remains a major public health problem, with 97% of Nigeria’s population at risk from the disease. Children and pregnant women are the most at-risk populations, with the highest prevalence in children age 6-59 months in Kebbi State (52%) and the lowest in Lagos State (1.8%).

The 2017 Nigerian National Health Account estimated total expenditure on malaria at N1.9 trillion ($5.3 billion) with out-of-pocket (households) payment accounting for 78 percent of all malaria spending. This expenditure represents 44 percent of the current health account in 2017. Government’s contribution to malaria prevention and treatment totalled 18 percent, with federal government contributing 12 percent, state government five percent and local government 1 percent. Donor contributions to malaria control spending in 2017 are estimated at approximately four percent. [1]

The high economic and disease burden of malaria continues to slow down the country’s socioeconomic development. Especially at this moment when Nigeria is still grappling with the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying the economic and disease burden, in all age groups, is critical for advocacy and resource mobilisation for the national malaria elimination agenda. The assignmentwill alsoinvolve conducting an actuarial study to convert Nigeria Malaria burdens and risks to economic and financial losses or gains. Direct and indirect costs of not doing enough would also be estimated to allow the NEMC advocacy messages in financial and economic terms. There are a few published estimates of the disease and economic burden of malaria in Nigeria. However, a synthesis of the knowledge base is required and some of the key estimates require updating. This work seeks to develop the economic case for the goal of malaria elimination in Nigeria. These inputs will complement the current effortsofengaging the highest level of government and private sector in the country on malaria activities through the establishment of the End Malaria Council.

PRIMARY ROLE: To produce a report on the preliminary assessment of the systems to generate malaria economic / financial information, the type, format, periodicity of the users of the information. Use the existing evidence to develop a synthesis report of the evidence on the economic burden and disease burden of Malaria in Nigeria between the seven-year

period, 2014 to 2020. It will also produce an actuarial analysis report projecting between 2021 and 2030 the risks of malaria burden to economic and financial loss / gains at the national and subnational levels.

SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES:

A preliminary quick assessment of the requirements of the direct users and stakeholders and the capacity of the existing systems in key Ministries at the federal and subnational levels to generate the evidence required for the analysing and generation of malaria economic and financial data, A synthesis report comprising a desk-based narrative literature review and collation of evidence related to the economic and disease burden of malaria (all age groups) in Nigeria in the seven-year (previous national malaria strategic plan) period, 2014-2020. Information from publications and reports should be used to synthesise the disease and economic burden evidence for malaria (all age groups) in Nigeria. Conduct rapid actuarial study/analysis of Nigeria Malaria burden and risks with the aim of generating information on the financial and economic costs of malaria in population clusters and the impact of national/sub-national economies. Provide new or additional country specific data on the direct and indirect costs of malaria on the economy of the individual, the family, the community, and the country. Use the existing evidence to develop the economic case for the goal of malaria elimination in Nigeria. Secondary analysis with existing data may be required. Engage with key stakeholders(virtually or in-person), to frame the key issues and address any feedback they will have in reviewing the report before it is finalised. Share draft version of the report with NMEP and WHO for their feedback, and address any major issues in the final version of the synthesis report.

EXPECTED OUTPUTS:

A synthesis report (including literature review) which should cover the following: Assessment report of the need of users of the malaria economic and financial data and the systems to support the process. Estimates of the economic burden of malaria in Nigeria between 2014 and 2020, showing any trends and pointing out any data gaps or discrepancies. Estimates of the disease burden of malaria in Nigeria between 2014 and 2020, showing any trends and pointing out any data gaps or discrepancies. Report of actuarial study/analysis of Nigeria Malaria burden and risks with the aim of generating information on the financial and economic costs of malaria in population clusters and the impact of national/sub-national economies for the period 2021 to 2030. Estimates of the economic case for the goal of malaria elimination in Nigeria, with a description of current issues, key constraints and opportunities related to financing for malaria elimination in Nigeria. The methodology used for the economic case should be well described and limitations of the approach should be mentioned. Two or three examples or cases studies which provide valuable lessons which could inform future financing arrangements for malaria elimination in Nigeria. Presentation of the findings to the NMEP and its key stakeholders in a format that will be agreed with the NMEP and the Malaria Consortium. Following the completion of the synthesis report and its dissemination, a follow-on piece of work could be to prepare a manuscript for submission as a perspective piece (or narrative literature review) to a suitable peer-reviewed journal. The manuscript writing is not included in this consultancy although the synthesis report should be developed with this intention in mind.

REPORTING : NMEP National Coordinator, will be the technical contact and oversight point for this assignment. Head of NMEP PM branch and Chair of PM Subcommitteewill be the direct contacts.

TOTAL NUMBER OF CONTRACT DAYS: The assignment will be conducted by an Actuarial Studies / Analysis Expert with experience in undertaking Public Health economic analyses for 20 days. The consultant will be supported by data collectors during the field work of the study and stakeholders / consensus meetings will be organised periodically during the period of the assignment.

PERSON SPECIFICATIONS The essential and desirable requirements needed by the short-term consultant to be able to perform the work effectively.

Essential criteria:

Masters in health economics, actuarial science, statistics, public health, or equivalent professional experience. Decision / health economics analysis experience Experience of doing similar economic analyses in communicable diseases, including economic modelling Ability to work independently with effective time management and excellent prioritisation Evidence of ability to write clearly and produce high quality written reports and publications Liability insurance covering the period of the work

Desirable criteria:

Experience or excellent understanding of working with ministries of health or other government institutions Experience with communicating to non-scientists

Interested and qualified candidates who are passionate and willing to contribute towards the achievement of our goals should kindly send their CVs and suitability statements as a single document to hr.nigeriaconsultant@malariaconsortium.org on or before 12noon Thursday, 20 th January, 2022 .

Subject of the mail : Please indicate position applied for i.e. Modelling expert (International Consultant) as the subject title of your email application.

Kindly note that applicants who do not follow this specification, will be disqualified.

All applications should be sent in on or before 11:59pm Thursday, 20 th January, 2022.

Malaria Consortium does not accept or ask for payment during recruitment. We also would not accept hardcopy CVs; all applications should be sent through the above email address .

Applications submitted after the deadline will NOT be accepted.

Malaria Consortium- Call For Application For Modelling Expert (International) Consultant

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